The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR0 has released their report for the month of June. The median price has dropped from $305,000 in June 2007 to $225,000 in June 2008, for a drop of 26.2%- the largest YOY decline since the market started to decline:
Lower prices however, have indeed brought more sellers back into the market. 2,226 single family homes sold in June, a 51% increase over last year:
A couple of things to note–
Sales typically peak around June, so this may be the busiest month of the year- sales typically decline in the second half of the year. Note that although sales are up year-over-year, they remain below the levels of recent years. Inventory currently stands at 23,338 – a slight 1.1% decline over last year’s inventory.
Month’s supply has declined to 10.5 months, the lowest level since December 2006. This remains, however, a slow market, and high levels of foreclosures and inventory will continue to put downward pressure on prices.
Foreclosures and short sales have interested speculators, who have begun to purchase homes in Las Vegas again. However, a cooling economy is liable to contribute to a slower housing market. It remains to be seen if buyers find these properties to be a "good long term investment" or a "sucker’s rally".
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The best sight of Las Vegas is in your rearview mirror. Unless you’re just visiting. Without a good economy what a joke of a place to call home.
I know we have mentioned this before, but it begs the question as to what is a normal sales market. Certainly not 2003-2005. Long term in most markets it looks like somewhere around 2002 and 2006 levels based on sales per 1000 units in the poplulation. 2002/2006 levels will not support too many Realtors. Certainly not as many as a currently memebers of NAR. It alos suggests a good 10-14 months of average inventory. 20+ months in the bubble states.
Tobby-
I don’t think any sales number can be considered “normal” as a stand alone figure. It always has to be taken in the context of supply and demand. As long as the inventory remains high, there will be downward pressure on prices, even with sales picking up. When the inventory is filled with REOs and short sales, it’s going to be even worse.
That said, I believe that sales would be the first thing to pick up in a housing recovery. Just based on sales numbers, you might be tempted to say the market is “turning around”, but broader economic conditions and the inventory issue makes me skeptical.
Twist
Really interested in coming to grips with the high-rise sector of the LV market. While I think the res potion is toast I have no idea what kind of impact the “correction” has had on the high rise condos built mainly for out of towners etc. Can you or one of your trusted bloggers shed any light on the specifics i.e. number of built lying empty with cobwebs, approved not built and, new and headed for or in foreclosure? Thanks, have and will continue to enjoy your blog.
Phoenix: Median Home price/Median Household Income=2.8=The Bottom! Still have $45,000 to go. Ouch. I heard someone say that “they” expect Phx to have 1 in 11 homes in foreclosure by 2010.
Redriver-
Those are hard numbers to come by, even for the RE agents. I catch all the gossip I can, then try and separate truth from fiction.
I went into the City Center sales office and spent a couple of hours. They claim to nearly have the place sold out, but I don’t believe it. Sold at this point is pretty subjective, as no units have been finished yet.
One agent pointed out all of the dark windows in a number of the projects, but others try and tell you that’s because they all belong to out-of-state owners.
Jumbos are expensive, buyers are nervous, the Las Vegas economy is hurting- you know the big condo projects are in trouble, but proving it is something else again.
Sales in Las Vegas classically track the temperature. And they have not yet peaked. July is going to be close to or over 2500. And August will be the same or higher. Note that there are leading indicators that strongly indicate August will be like July and September will not be down significantly.
This is a pretty strong market for Las Vegas. It is likely above the historical average. It is not there with the 2004/5 market but that market was the freak.
Price appears to still be dropping and no immediate end in sight. The REPO portion however was pretty much stable in July…actually up a little first half of July versus second half. The drop however is in the 1/3 of the market not REPO…which is clearly dropping toward the REPOs at a rate of 3 or 4% per month.
All in all it appears the REPOs are being eaten and we will see price stability when the non REPOs stabilize at whatever premium than can achieve. Still at least two or three months out.
Thanks Twist, agreed – proving it is another matter. I did enjoy the realtors comeback to the dark windows comment, classic! I’ll be sure to forward on to this portion of the site any “real” findings.
I heard where “we” here in Phx should expect to have 1 in 11 homes in foreclosure by the end of next year. If true that’s 9% of the housing stock!
Actual sales were 2592. Leading indicators suggest August will be as good or slightly better. So we have a very large increase in volume…almost 100% YOY with a decreasing price. Price is down about 2.5% month over month or 25% YOY. The price of REPOs is pretty much stable for the last six weeks. Field action would suggest to me a slight up in REPOs pricing is likely. I have for instance a young couple who have now missed 6 in a row with list or above list offers. We appear to be selling REPOs some what faster than the are hitting the market.
I would still expect August pricing to be down a little as the non-REPOs continue downard offseting the small REPO increase.
But don’t miss the good news for the RE folk. This is a pretty good market.
From: http://www.lvrj.com/business/27986389.html
Las Vegas values sink some more….
“HOUSING PRICES: Asking prices of properties listed for sale declined in 20 of 25 major markets, according to the Real-Time Housing Market Report published by California-based Altos Research and market analysis firm Real IQ.
Prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas, which was down 4.8 percent in August and 8.6 percent over the most recent three-month period for an annualized rate of nearly 35 percent.