Las Vegas values sink some more….

“HOUSING PRICES: Asking prices of properties listed for sale declined in 20 of 25 major markets, according to the Real-Time Housing Market Report published by California-based Altos Research and market analysis firm Real IQ.
Prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas, which was down 4.8 percent in August and 8.6 percent over the most recent three-month period for an annualized rate of nearly 35 percent.

I would still expect August pricing to be down a little as the non-REPOs continue downard offseting the small REPO increase.

But don’t miss the good news for the RE folk. This is a pretty good market.

I heard where “we” here in Phx should expect to have 1 in 11 homes in foreclosure by the end of next year. If true that’s 9% of the housing stock!

This is a pretty strong market for Las Vegas. It is likely above the historical average. It is not there with the 2004/5 market but that market was the freak.

Price appears to still be dropping and no immediate end in sight. The REPO portion however was pretty much stable in July…actually up a little first half of July versus second half. The drop however is in the 1/3 of the market not REPO…which is clearly dropping toward the REPOs at a rate of 3 or 4% per month.

All in all it appears the REPOs are being eaten and we will see price stability when the non REPOs stabilize at whatever premium than can achieve. Still at least two or three months out.

Those are hard numbers to come by, even for the RE agents. I catch all the gossip I can, then try and separate truth from fiction.

I went into the City Center sales office and spent a couple of hours. They claim to nearly have the place sold out, but I don’t believe it. Sold at this point is pretty subjective, as no units have been finished yet.

One agent pointed out all of the dark windows in a number of the projects, but others try and tell you that’s because they all belong to out-of-state owners.

Jumbos are expensive, buyers are nervous, the Las Vegas economy is hurting- you know the big condo projects are in trouble, but proving it is something else again.

Phoenix: Median Home price/Median Household Income=2.8=The Bottom! Still have $45,000 to go. Ouch. I heard someone say that “they” expect Phx to have 1 in 11 homes in foreclosure by 2010.

I don’t think any sales number can be considered “normal” as a stand alone figure. It always has to be taken in the context of supply and demand. As long as the inventory remains high, there will be downward pressure on prices, even with sales picking up. When the inventory is filled with REOs and short sales, it’s going to be even worse.

That said, I believe that sales would be the first thing to pick up in a housing recovery. Just based on sales numbers, you might be tempted to say the market is “turning around”, but broader economic conditions and the inventory issue makes me skeptical.