We’ve been assured by many agents and analysts in Phoenix that the foreclosure pain would be pretty much limited to the outlying areas– it looks like they were wrong:
Metropolitan Phoenix’s foreclosure problem has spread. Many Valley neighborhoods closer in, particularly in south, west and central Phoenix, now have the highest foreclosure rates, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of real-estate data from the Information Market.
Foreclosures across metro Phoenix number 16,647 for the first half of the year compared with 9,966 during all of 2007 and 1,070 in 2006.
Last summer, when foreclosures were just starting to climb, the highest rates of home defaults were found on the Valley’s more affordable fringes. The problem worsened, hitting a wider swath of homeowners who bought at the peak of the housing boom through subprime loans. Although some of the Valley’s fringe areas such as Surprise, Anthem and Buckeye continue to have high foreclosure rates, the problem has moved inward.
"It has become more of an equity problem than a subprime problem," said Tom Ruff, a real-estate analyst with Information Market.
Many of the homes going into foreclosure were bought or refinanced during the peak of the housing boom in 2006, according to property records. Home prices are down almost 30 percent from that time, so many people struggling now owe much more than their home is worth.
Foreclosure rates have been skyrocketing:
Foreclosures across metro Phoenix number 16,647 for the first half of the year compared with 9,966 during all of 2007 and 1,070 in 2006.
Phoenix is nearing the end of the peak selling season, but has seen no real moderation in housing inventory this summer. Between the inventory and tighter lending standards, it’s going to be tough for even the short sellers and lenders to sell in this environment. I expect things to get worse before they get better.
It always was an equity problem.
With rising values all sins are forgiven. Sub prime was always sold as bridge loans. You had 2 years or 3 years to fix your credit. Your pick 2 or 3 years. Rising values would allow you to refinance later. Lenders priced the loan so they would only hold the loan for those 2-3 years. Over that time frame who would or could pay 12-14% on a long term loan?
Oops. Credit is fixed but debt is higher than loans.
How many times did I hear Radio shows Push that taking all your cash out was the best way to protect your assets. If you were sued you could lose your house if it was paid for, if you lost your job who would pay your mortgage? CASH OUT 100% was the way to go. The Cash was in your pocket and the Bank had the debt. He who has the cash wins.
Hmmmm, many in Phoenix now even if they can pay are walking away since it does not make financial sense to hold a negative asset debt.
Paulson want taxpayers to rescue the banks stuck with a worthless Porto. The market is pricing in higher and higher mortgage rates for everyone now.
Paulson’s take is; if everyone pays a little more on there mortgages it will save the few rotten apples.
Defaults are less than 3% of FNM and FRE Porto, but rates are now 100 basis points higher than 3 months ago for EVERYONE!!!
Should the taxpayer also save the cash out refi home owner? Most of the foreclosures are NOT first time home buyers, they are the ones that CASHED OUT REFI using 100% mtg loans.
CASH out as a financial way to nirvana was the Mantra in 2006. The rate did not matter.
many Hotel conference rooms where packed with people with the show on how to become a millionaire using your house equity. They recommended to use a the “cash out” and invest in ANNUITIES!!!!
In the back these oil salesmen where laughing all the way to the bank as the Annuity fee was 30,000 to 50,000 per deal. They convinced the mortgage originator that this was a way to increase his business, REFI, REFI REFI 80 -90% CASH OUT. Lenders sponsored these events… how many here attended?
Annuities were tax free and the stock market historically has ALWAYS gone up over time… ACK?????? Variable annuities aghgh, hair ball in my throat. Sorry.
I don’t get why this is news? Phoenix is the largest city in Maricopa county, has the most houses and people, and thus on a monthly basis has the most foreclosures. According to my NT Data this isn’t something that has recently happened, going back as far as 2006 that I have data for on hand there hasn’t been a single month that it isn’t the top city in preforeclosures. This is like the Republic reporting a few months back that Phoenix was the top city in sales — it usually is, its huge. They are really reaching to create news.
I agree with Coffee. It’s not becoming an equity problem, it always was an equity problem.
There are two responsible parties to all of this: the borrowers and the lenders. The borrowers for being too stupid to realize you need to have equity and a house is not an ATM. And the banks for being stupid enough to make the loans.
From the banks’ perspective, what were these guys thinking? Fear of bad credit is a deterrant to foreclosure? Guess not, huh? With no skin in the game, what does the borrower have to loose? Nothing. Worst case scenario, they end up having to set a budget and make cash purchases on everything for the next 7 years. **shudder** Dante would be speechless.
I have had two running watches set on short sale/ Bank owned REO for the past several months. One on Tempe and Scottsdale, the other on the ‘magic zip’ 85254 (magic because it pays phoenix taxes, but gets scottsdale address and schools)
magic zip started at 57 in march, above 70 now
Tempe&Scottsdale 275 above 500 now.
Prices are dropping quite quickly now. I intend to buy a few more houses, but not until we are darn near at a bottom!
equity was, equity is. I agree. The fed had to have known this also when they started their diahretic raising of the rates. I think this will go down in history as the fed’s most destructive move. WE WILL NEVER RECOVER. I would throw in a few choice words but I know I’d get the T-Edit
Finally after years of pretense things have gotten so bad, whatever credibility the Arizona Repusive has remaining forces a front page above the fold ‘when it comes to housing we are sooooo screwed’ article.
Is there anyone left to read it?
“…it does not make financial sense to hold a negative asset debt”…? What exactly is a “negative asset debt”? It sounds like a double negative contradiction. Negative asset? These are not assets, an asset is something that puts money in your pocket. A primary residence is not an asset, it’s a liability, the loan is an asset to the lender, unless the borrower stops making the payments, then the loan becomes a liability as well. Lets not start using 10 dollar words to justify the characterless actions of the people that walk away from their debt because they choose to, rather then because they have to. They are not walking because they are financially astute, they are walking because they lack character and integrity.
I agree with zr0ck: this isn’t news worthy. AZCentral.com must be looking to fill column space, as foreclosures have always been spread across the valley. As Coffee said, people took cash out of their homes — and that happened everywhere. I live in Tempe and there have been plenty of foreclosure for sale over the last 18-months. Here is a very recent example:
http://www.foreclosureexpert.info/2008/07/tempe-reo-for-s.html