According to the Arizona Republic this morning:
The illegal-immigrant population has fallen an estimated 11 percent nationwide over the past year and perhaps even more in Arizona, with stricter law enforcement a likely cause, according to a report issued Wednesday by a Washington organization that promotes less immigration.
The apparent drop preceded a spike in unemployment claims, suggesting enforcement, not the nation’s faltering economy, is responsible, said Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies. The drop of about 1 million illegal residents happened from August to May, the report says, even as the number of legal immigrants increased.
In Arizona, the number of illegal immigrants may have fallen as much as 18 percent since August, Camarota said, though the data is too spotty to say with confidence. The state, however, is among the leaders in declines, he said.
"There seems to be a sense among the illegals that the enforcement law is back in business," Camarota said.
Estimates before this study put the number of illegal immigrants at 12 million nationwide and 500,000 in Arizona.
Along with others quoted in the Republic, I disagree with Camarota when he discounts the economy as an issue. Many illegals were employed in the construction industry. When construction started to slow, illegals were the first to lose their jobs. Often they were on crews that simply were not called back. Legal employees were let go later. Others worked in services such as housekeeping and landscaping that were considered optional by people with tightening budgets. Economically, the illegal population was hit first.
This will have an adverse affect on the housing market. This represents a large number of renters, homeowners and consumers who are no longer participating in the U.S. economy. This population outflow can only serve to increase foreclosures, as some homeowners leave the U.S., and landlords have more difficulty renting out their properties.
Whatever your opinion on immigration issues, this can only spell more problems for housing.
On the same topic, this was in the AZ Republic two days ago:
The first wave was in DEC 07 prior to the employer verify laws. Anecdotal evidence was multi family prop in South PHX were suddenly vacated leaving land lords with out rent. You could also see it in the sudden empty taco/marisco restaurants along the Spanish Corridor (west camelback) Many now closed due to lack of clientele.
The 4plex rental properties for sale have surged. The 6-8 multi family tracts are also hurting with vacancies. Soon these will turn to sales. You should be able to find many in the 25K/unit range.
How about the Western Union reporting the money flow back home hurting MEX banks and families that depended on the weekly arrivals of $US. MEX Central Bank (MCB) reported familial remittances dropped 300million the first Q 2008 on 7/30/08.
Excellent post Twist; I agree with your take.
The laws may have had some impact, but it was the economy. Housing is just the tip of iceberg of what will be affected. Construction, yard workers and house cleaners etc… cannot find work here. About 6 mos. ago, we would get up to 20 cards/fliers a week in the mailbox or on the doorstep looking for work - not so much these days. We live in the heart of the meltdown and immigration central in SoCal. We don’t see the laborers like before, because there is no work. Some people are now doing their own lawns (Gasp! Whoda thunk?) Many of the supporting businesses like Mexican markets & check cashing etc… are closing and are left boarded up. We are also seeing the clown houses being abandonded. Of course the lenders or buyers will have a great deal of fun trying to bring these up to code. Look through Santa Ana and parts of Orange on RealtyTrack and see the foreclosure numbers are stunning. Schools (some are year round track) have seen student numbers drop as immigrant families have moved away and given no withdrawal notice. However, some reports have suggested they are moving into other states looking for work and not back to Mexico. Realize this - property taxes are the first thing ignored by delinquent borrowers. California cities are in panic mode as building permit fees are all but gone, non-impounded property taxes go unpaid during drawn out foreclosures, businesses are closing shop (hence go the taxes and license fees). This will have to be reckoned with. Meanwhile the state grabs any excess it can from cities and counties to feed the deficit.
These people had home loans, car loans, leases, cell phone contracts, yada yada yada (via false documentation) that they are walking away from much of it with no recourse. Retail stores are feeling their decline. We are just starting to see the effects.
We can thank our government’s policy of ignoring the immigration problem for decades for the pain we will all feel as this resolves.
I can visibly see it has something to do with the economy.
There is a Home Depot that I drive by on my way to work and when I go out for lunch. Never in my entire life have I seen as many day laborers waiting on a job before. I would estimate the numbers to be as follows:
2007 Morning: about 20
2007 Noon: about 10
2008 Morning: about 150
2008 Noon: about 100
It’s unbelievable to me how many are waiting around for a job here in Orange County CA. At least a significant number must just pack up and leave when things get that tough. There were estimates before this that 35% of the population in Southern Cali were illegal. My guess is that this number has significantly dropped: commuting is much more bearable now.
Chuck Ponzi
Proof of less immigrants participating in the economy.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/latinamerica/la-fg-migrant20apr20,1,7855387.story?
Twist, as an aside, your comment’s quote has a strange idea… basically the writer you quote is saying that vacant properties cause more crime.
I don’t believe that for a second. They are coincident, nothing more. A bad economy causes increase in crime as well as vacant properties. The economy is the reason for more crime, not empty houses.
As an aside, there are rural parts of Upstate New York that have 50% vacant houses without the slightest twinge of rampant crime.
Chuck -
You know, I’m still getting mileage from that OC Register story about the graffitid Santa Ana dump that was going for a half mill or whatever. Maybe we’ll get back to a certain level of sanity in SoCal home prices.
Agriculture is happening right now, canning, harvesting, etc. Usually you have to travel somewhere to find that kind of temporary work, but it’s everywhere. If the work needs to get done they’ll hire anyone who will show up for work.
Some people are used to that kind of life. The regulars even move, like for instance I live in Wisconsin and work with people from Illinois, and more from Michigan now than ever before.
The general media mind set as of late is that vacancies increase crime. Crime is still persistant just about everywhere, but it’s also a demographic, location, and trouble maker factor. The people robbing homes, are probably ticked off illegal construction workers who are getting unemployment benefits another way.
AZ Republic reported that Sales tax revenues declined Y/Y for the first time in 27 years. That is even with the help of a raise of Sales taxes of 10% in the last couple. 1 penny increase is 10%. Conveniently Politicians mention the penny not the %. What is it now 8.6% to their coffers? My guess is 27 years ago it probably was 4% if that.
I’ve been hearing anectdotal information about this for months.
My family lives all over Phoenix and Tucson, and has for probably 100 plus years.
My family tells me many Mexicans are going home. And my parents tell me that white guys are among those hanging around Home Depot, looking for work.
Immigration to the US tracks US job growth… it always has, at least since WWII.
What happens when job growth drops? Immigrants leave, many don’t come, and some are forcibly shoved out. Probably the smallest fraction stay in the US.
This has been public knowledge for years… but don’t tell the school districts, the politicians, local economists (we’re looking at YOU, Elliot Pollock), or the NAR… they’re all planning on continued growth forever.
Fools.