& forgive me for not just believing your “memories”

What you are looking at is a monthly average. Remember that 10 year note rates jumped 125 basis points that month. 5.23 was the 30 day average in June 2003. (high – low / 30 = 5.23)

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

I remember that period well as Capitol Commerce filed for bankruptcy and left 9 of my loans unfunded. It was cheaper to close their door than to fund loans 100 points below the market.

FYI: Capitol Commerce closed their doors because of this rate move, but re opened 6 months later with a new name ABC, American Brokers Conduit.

Google Capitol Commerce…

I will try to look up some prices but daily rates are not easy to find.

here’s another website, & it provides basic info on current rate that even professional brokers use.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/charts.asp

Set the time frame to 36 yrs (as far back as it goes).

nowhere is it close to 4%

I didn’t want to place 2 links & get eaten up by Igor.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/charts.asp

it goes back 36 years. the blue line never gets very low 6%

please cite your references. (& don’t use bankrate.com as that is known in mortgage circles as a bait&switch)

when in 2003 was it 4.625% par?
http://www.hsh.com/natmo2003.html

National Monthly Averages, 2003
Date 15-Year FRM 30-Year FRM 1-Year ARM
Jan-03 5.48% 6.05% 4.26%
Feb-03 5.36% 5.94% 4.15%
Mar-03 5.25% 5.88% 4.04%
Apr-03 5.28% 5.92% 4.02%
May-03 5.24% 5.65% 3.89%
Jun-03 4.84% 5.43% 3.75%
Jul-03 5.14% 5.80% 3.80%
Aug-03 5.77% 6.47% 4.08%
Sep-03 5.58% 6.29% 4.10%
Oct-03 5.41% 6.12% 3.98%
Nov-03 5.40% 6.07% 3.99%
Dec-03 5.35% 6.03% 3.97%
Source: HSH Associates http://www.hsh.com

“rates on a 30yr fixed never dropped below 5% without a buy down.”

Wrong DianaK, as recent as 2003, a 30 year fixed rate Mtg. did drop below 5%. (4.625% at par). That is surely to be broken on its way to the 3′s.

In the 1940.s they also average in the 4.s %.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

Ditto ditto. This site has been absolutely remarkable for insight. And right on. Wish more smart people would have noticed.

My favorite bit of absurdity so far in a day not lacking in absurdity was this:

Citigroup said following Lehman’s bankruptcy, they expect a distressed-sale of American International’s MBS portfolio, resulting in the worst quarter yet for the company. Shares were cut to Hold from Buy.

“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” – Inigo Montoya

you understand nothing about the basics of mortgage lending. it doesn’t matter if the FFR does get lowered to -25% rates.

Banks need to keep a fraction of capital in cash. So it is important to look at the FF, fed funds rate. FF is 24 hour lending between banks, excess is lent to banks that are short of the capital required. The Federal reserve is the lender of last resort, so the name Fed Funds.

Capital is measured at the end of each day. Rates were at 6% while the treasury has a target of 2%!!!!

“If the fed funds rate closes high today, I would be really worried as it would mean that there really is no money out there to be lent,” said Stan Jonas, who trades interest- rate derivatives at Axiom Management Partners

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avWG5Qugrp2M&refer=home

Y’know, over the last couple of years many a person I recommended this site to would not give it a chance, based on it name. Typically they’d say something like, “Oh, RIGHT, like a site called Housing DOOM can give unbiased information!!!!… and laugh off my recommendation”. It’s a shame, really.

Well, it has been their loss, hasn’t it? What these people didn’t realize…is that just because you say that something is in a really, really, bad state of affairs…DOOMED… doesn’t necessarily mean you are being subjective about it. Why can’t people make objective observations and conclude that something is doomed?

Anyway, y’all need to take a really big bow for this site for the last couple of years… for being such a wealth of information, for keeping on with your beliefs through all the naysaying, etc. Long live this web site!

John: Congrats on Scott publishing that work for Google Chrome. I realized the instant I started reading it that the art style was his handywork.

Mortgage rates are 5.375 30 year fixed, getting very close to breaking 5%.

Reality, absolute rates going up but with deflation going to negative 5% even a 2% mortgage is steep!!!!

FF will be lowered by .500% with in 5 days!

Best of luck to everyone on your investments today.

Igor’s word for me this morning “implode”

And shake apart we are. I often write that the U.S. is out of balance. Our physical/energy system is out of balance with our monetary system; a situation that cannot coexist long term.

I coined description some time back for our current condition of “the point of maximum credit.” There were physical impenetrable boundaries to our debt capitalism system. We have arrived at that barrier.