Las Vegas residents know the spin- the pundits have said for years that all the folks moving to Las Vegas will have the housing market recovering quickly. The problem is, now people are moving out. [Hat tip to JW!]
For years Clark County has been one of the fastest growing places in the country, but now new numbers show more people are leaving Las Vegas.
So why after all these years is our population declining? One of the main reasons can be seen on the Strip. Construction equals jobs and when it stops, people go elsewhere to make money.
Historian Dennis McBride remembers a time when our city was mostly desert and trees. "I can recall as a child living on the west side of Las Vegas and you could see this tiny little river of lights."
He saw a town of a few thousand people grow into one of the biggest money making cities in the world.
McBride says the boom started in the 30′s, "when they started building Hoover Dam the boom began and it never really stopped."
Until now. According to the county’s latest census, thousands of people have left Las Vegas in the last year.
"This is the first time that I believe we’ve seen 10,000ish drop in the population," said Jon Wardlaw, assistant planning manager with Clark County. He attributes the decline to a number of things: cuts in casino jobs and a major slump in the construction industry.
"It would probably be because they are following the construction trades and the construction industry and as that kind of thing slows here, they may transfer their skills to agriculture, other types of construction, maybe oil, maybe freeway construction, etc.," he said.
This will be another factor slowing down "recovery". It’s hard to fill homes when people are packing up and leaving.
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That is a sad story. I am a Realtor in Downtown Vancouver and I count my blessing that we have always had a higher level of regulation here in Canada that’s precluded a sub prime crisis.
Mike -
So far so good
… but I’m beginning to get a really bad feeling about BC & AB & SK (a moment of silence for ON), and that’s not just Maritimer envy, either. That bailout scandal about the Olympic village is not a good sign.
Sorry I’m not up to twist’s level of statistical analysis, although a couple of years ago I helped point out an egregious error perpetrated by Re/Max Canada which I don’t doubt still shows up on glossy folders at agent’s offices all over the country. Luckily, twist is on the case for you guys, so you need not feel left out.
Since Vegas appeared to be ahead of the curve on the housing boom maybe Phoenix will be next for net outflows on population. I see signs of a slowdown everywhere I look.
I wouldn’t be quite so sanguine about being a realtor in Vancouver. Take a look at this posting from Barry Ritholz. Wow. It appears Canada is in for an epic contraction. Almost as bad as Spain.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/global-real-estate-ratios/
Who is more credible? A county planner or a REIC adviser? I am going with the county guy.
“While Las Vegas is struggling now, the region matches up well against other parts of the country, Sullivan Group Vice President Ken Perlman said.
For the first time in 25 years, employment growth has turned negative, down 0.3 percent in September from the same month a year ago. Still, Las Vegas added 52,500 jobs a year since 2005.
Population growth is going to average 50,000 people a year through 2012, Perlman said, and that’s going to buoy the market for a while.”
http://www.lvrj.com/business/34451289.html
Span alert!
Mike is getting higher google rankings from this thread.
Chuck
Sorry, spam, not span
need good spellchecker!
Chuck -
Yeah, I thought about that, but at least his comment wasn’t purely an ad (passed the Turning test, anyway
)
Igor actually didn’t like it very much. My bad.
Russ, having recently left LV, I can safely say the town’s future is not set up for construction people. Go ahead and say it. Illegals. They can’t afford it. If LV matches up well with other parts of the country we’re in deep. The town’s real estate is basicaly owned by foreign concerns and there is no non-gaming business community to allow growth. The town is all gaming. Perlman is another talking head snake oil salesman trying to sell ocean front property in Nevada. And no water
Hi Chuck Ponzi,
Its good to see you have such interesting and useful comments about people leaving Las Vegas and real estate in general.
Thanks for being on topic!
Anyway, back to reality.
We here are seeing price declines but deals are still occurring. I am still very happy about being a realtor in this market. People need to buy and sell and I am making a great living doing that.