Comments on: change

By: Yossarian

Yossarian — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 04:34:44 +0000

Surak:

Hi, thanks for the question… sorry for the delay…. There was a poll (I think WSJ, maybe Bloomberg) published around Jan 08, survey question asked ‘housing analysts’ when they thought prices would bottom… about half of them thought home prices would bottom between 2010 and 2012. Many thought earlier, a few later.

Conventional analysis of other busts says this sounds about right – seven years from peak to bottom, but with a long flat bottom.

The thing that disturbs me is this… these analysts were surveyed before the present economic crises came to life… so they are largely depending on fairly simple and old numbers…. there’s another thing… a number of other ‘softer’ indicators are just starting to show serious stress …. wait until the municipal layoffs start in earnest in the spring…

And of course, there’s all the ‘Black Swans’ still lurking out there. I’m not sure 2010 is the bottom nationwide… I’m POSITIVE it isn’t, in the Valley of the Sun. Even pessimistic me is starting to get scared.

I’ll send twist my email address, in case you want to email about this some more…

By: John M.

John M. — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 15:50:18 +0000

OK, hint time. #4 is pretty much correct. Some Doom readers, especially old-time ones, may have figured out the mug, but for others, pay close attention to 2:05 here

"Dumb," Igor? well, maybe ;)

By: freemonster

freemonster — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 14:49:57 +0000

Az.
I could be wrong but I don’t think John shares a lot of Republican values. I listen to a lot of Bob Dylan so I’m used to interactive poetry. I just drove around and listened to Dylan on all 6 cd’s and I must admit this is way over my head. I don’t believe it was meant in a negative way. I predict John’s shock and awe answer will be written soon. Very soon. Lighten up with a little peace love and understanding

By: surak

surak — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 04:52:26 +0000

Yossarian,

I would like to get your insight. I have been predicting for that the last two years that the bottom for home prices would occur in early 2010. I just heard from my parents that Suze Orman just stated the same thing. Any thoughts.

Thanks

By: Arizzzona

Arizzzona — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 18:19:44 +0000

The idea is we may be in store for more “change” than we realize.

(It’s witty.)

Let’s “hope” it’s the Churchillian variety.

By: AZSALUKI

AZSALUKI — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 16:35:27 +0000

no idea what was meant here???? i can tell you my mind initially went to a direct comparison of obama to napolean and hitler? then i thought….that can’t be what he is infering. then i clicked the “interesting” link. i came away with a fear tactic similar to much of the republican campaigning??? a coffee mug that defines “interesting” as “oh god, we’re all gonna die?????” i’m sure i missed the mark….but what i got was “obama is in power now and we’re all gonna die.” hope i’m way off or igor is correct…..that’s “lousy.”

By: funthea

funthea — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:25:27 +0000

The title “change”, we all know to be the acronym that Obamar used as his mantra. Ergo, the authors inference was to clearly imply “Obamar” as the subject.

I believe the reference was too imply Obamar as “different” in the face of his appointment. In so much as he is like the aforementioned rulers being unlike there peers in the land that they surveyed. More to the point, that they were perceived unlikely to aspire to such a level as an indigenous countryman, yet did.

BTW, Obamar in not Kenyan, although he clearly has Kenyan ties and roots. He was born in Hawaii which makes him U.S. born, and therefore a natural born citizen.

By: NVmike

NVmike — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 07:40:59 +0000

Well? John M? Care to enlighten the rest of us regarding your point?

By: Yossarian

Yossarian — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 04:11:09 +0000

I either don’t do the correct drugs, or I don’t live in the right place (Utah?)… but I need somebody to tell me what this post is supposed to mean.

By: Tobby

Tobby — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 19:34:20 +0000

We Americans are all mutts. But then again, that is our strength. Churchill’s mom was a rich American. His dad was a bit of a playboy for the 1800′s. Winnie was born 8 months after his parents were married.

By: malthus

malthus — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 16:19:17 +0000

Napoleon was Corsican. Hitler was an Austrian. Stalin was Georgian. I have no idea what Churchill was and I am not sure what point is being referenced here–perhaps that Obama is not an American. He is a Kenyan.

By: freemonster

freemonster — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:31:01 +0000

NV, I thought it was just me.

By: NVmike

NVmike — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 07:04:16 +0000

Napoleon was not French. Stalin was not Russian. Hitler was not German. Churchill was not English.

I don’t get it.

By: twist

twist — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 16:10:35 +0000

John-

Our admin always likes to remind me of this saying, "May you live in interesting times." From Wickipedia:

May you live in interesting times is reputed to be the English translation of an ancient Chinese proverb and curse. It is reported that it was the first of three curses of increasing severity, the other two being:

May you come to the attention of those in authority

May you find what you are looking for

It may not be a real Chinese saying, but whoever coined it has a point.