From the chickens, the new goat, & all of us in Doom Castle …
!!HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
We now proudly present OSO’s 2009 prognostications — the ones that gave Igor his world class hangover 
- The US Dollar will undergo a substantial devaluation. It will eventually fall below 60 on the US Dollar Index.
- The price of oil will go up again but only because it is denominated in US Dollars. It may potentially rise up to $60 depending upon how far the US Dollar will drop, but will not rise due to increased demand.
- Oil production throughout 2009 will be substantially lower than the past two years.
- Gold will exceed $1000 per ounce as a result of the dollar drop too.
- US unemployment will exceed 10% sometime during the year.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop below 7082.26 (half the October 2007 high of 14,164.53. It’s already around 8500 so it won’t have far to go).
- Two quarters of 2009 GDP will be negative. The NBER will not announce an end to the recession at all in 2009.
- Inflation will rise again a few months after the US Dollar drops (see prediction no. 1 above)
- Ben Bernanke will resign or will be fired. A major shakeup of the Federal Open Market Committee will see many new faces.
- US Public Debt will exceed 55% of GDP.
- Barack Obama’s decisions will disappoint experts, but will retain a high level of popular support.
- Paul Krugman will admit he was seriously wrong about something.
- Iceland’s economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year.
- A growing number of Brits will demand adopting the Euro and abandoning the weak Pound. While this number may exceed 50% of the population, it will not be enough for UK politicians to make any decision throughout the year.
- Australia will lose The Ashes to England in the middle of 2009.
- More climate scientists will admit that global warming is occurring faster than they thought it would.
- Sea levels will rise by more than 3mm in 2009.
- Kevin Rudd will mention Biochar.
- Applications for Green cards will decline substantially.
- Linux adoption will exceed 1.2%.
- Firefox adoption will exceed 25%.
- Duke Nukem Forever will be released to universal indifference.
- Robert Mugabe will remain president of Zimbabwe as conditions plumb new depths of misery.
- The Australian Economy will go into recession.
- Heath Ledger will posthumously win the 81st Academy Awards Best Actor Oscar for his role as the Joker in The Dark Knight.
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I can see all of these things happening except for the Krugman part. He has had a pretty darn good track record but he is human afterall.
Prediction:
Greg Swann will admit he was wrong on one, and only one point of his famous list of reasons that RE is “different” in Phoenix.
http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/BloodhoundBlog/?p=114
Specifically, that there is not actually year round golf here, since it is, in truth, too blasted hot for most humans to play in August! # 21
He will hold fast to the rest of the gems, though, and boldly profess that regardless of when you ask the question, NOW is the best time to buy!