: )

http://www.azcentral.com/community/phoenix/articles/2009/01/14/20090114homicide0114.html

At a minimum, I expected anemic growth. There are simply fewer jobs, and even fewer good jobs. And how are those underwater in California or Ohio or wherever going to sell their house and move to Arizona for retirement or for non-retirement? Renters and those with sufficient money can still come, but will they want to? Sure, plenty will, but certainly not enough to utilize several years worth of housing stock.

Back in the 1920s when the economy was booming, the Detroit auto makers [Ford in particular] imported workers from Mexico. [On a personal note, my grandfather was one of them.]

After the market crashed, the government decided that if Mexicans were deported, there would be more jobs for Americans. If you listed your place of birth, or your parents place of birth as Mexico on the 1930 census, you were considered a Mexican whether you were a U.S. citizen or not.

It was considered impractical to enforce a nationwide expulsion, so it was limited to Detroit and southern California. No exact records were kept, but the estimate was around 200,000. [You read a lot about what happened to the Japanese in WWII, but little on this travesty. You can Google the "Repatriation" if you are interested.]

At any rate, Detroit was decimated. Apartment buildings were vacated. Groceries stores were emptied. Retail was decimated.

I wouldn’t advocate just throwing the borders open, but it’s a good idea to consider all the implications before throwing a large segment of the population out.

In Arizona, a HUGE contributor to any loss of population, is illegal immigrant self deportation. With the drop off in construction employment, employee laws regarding varifying work eligibility, and the antics of “America’s Stupidest Sherrif” where suspected illegals are harrassed but criminal warrants go unserved, they are simply chosing to leave.

Now, in a real estate led downturn, one might question policies that drive out several percent of the population; One might wonder how increasing rental vacancies will further impact a struggling real estate market. But, apparantly one wouldn’t think about that at all if he/she was ignorant trailerpark mentality lifted truck driving duffus, which describes 80% of phoenix/mesa population.

I was right on this one, and did take a lot of flack for it. There are those who will tell you though, that doesn’t necessarily prove that I’m not crazy. : )

You called this some time ago. You were right on the mark. I do not doubt that a lot of people thought you were crazy. This site has been right on.

Las Vegas has people getting out. I would have moved out a couple hours after I moved in if I didn’t have a husband anchored to the place. I expect to see more folks moving out. Some people love it here and some just plain hate it.

One thing I’ve seen over my two times of living in Las Vegas; if you want out, you’d better get going otherwise you’ll never get out. This place has a way of sucking everything out of you till you just give in and become an old desert rat and pretend you love it.

Cost of living here is off the charts. Daily expenses are high. Dentistry is almost triple what Santa Monica, CA, is and I thought SM was pretty high. In CA, I would meet friends for happy hour once a week – cost me under $20. In LV, same deal is $60! I do it anyway.

I understand the flight to AZ. Many friends and clients chose that path during the 90′s recession, however, many of them returned to CA saying they missed their base.

When SoCal has it’s next earthquake, look out, here they come to Las Vegas, Phoenix, you name it. Anyplace that doesn’t rock.

I’m in the Bay Area, which is NEVER supposed to lose people. But it’s happening. We have a socked in, entitled middle class here, but they’ll get theirs too. By the way, California deficit, now $42 billion (I predicted $40 billion a year ago, and everyone laughed since it as $7 billion), looking at 75-85 billion.

Huge economic downturn in California which NO ONE wants to talk about here. Very corrupt in California, very gentlemen’s agreement to stifle bad news–and then suddenly it all comes out! This new budget new will come out too. Wait and see.

Also, watch out for another thing. Google

supply chain

This is where the economy will really collapse, and shows you the power orientation of Washington. EVERY link of the supply chain is financed. That is not happening now, and with one thing and another, the supply chain is falling apart.

So…shortages? Yes. Inflation because of shortages? Yes.

But Washington thinks it’s only important to put money in banks’ accounts–even though banks are only the U.S. Government itself, behind a fig leaf.

There will be hell to pay now that the economy on the ground is disappearing.

By the way, look for a march on Washington this summer. Obamavilles? Yes. There are already references to it on the web.

Let’s hope they burn down the White House.

This is just a heads up about a story I read, involving Chinese drywall having a large sulfur content, which not only stinks but is also corrosive. Look to it.

According to Jay Butler, the methodology that was used for calculating how many people moved in was based in part on the number of homes sold, and he said that there was probably an error in the figures for that reason. That’s one of the reasons that I think that tracking utilities being shut off may overestimate the number of people leaving for that reason. I believe the school enrollment numbers though, I think that’s an actual indication of whether people are coming or going.

None of the stats above actually count people… looking back on it now, I wonder how many towns ended up counting “investors” as part of their population, when those people did not actually live there – they just claimed to for tax reasons or something.

I live in northern Wisconsin once, it was so cheap to live, dirt cheap. The water is clean, air clean, and the people, well mostly nice, oh and the beer was really cheap too.

You found things to do that did not cost any money.

I’m sure Phoenix will be fine in the longer run, I thought Arizona had a preferable climate.

I moved from the Valley a year ago, and at the time I talked to several moving companies. The companies that handled executive moves said that they still had about 20% more move-ins than people moving out. Companies like U-haul however were saying that the net was out.

M and I have been looking at school district enrollments, which have been falling most everywhere in the Valley.

We’ve been told for awhile that one out of three dollars generated in the Valley were related to housing. While not all housing is dead, losing construction employment is bleeding into other sectors as well. I think it’s possible then that Phoenix could lose 1/3 of it’s economy. If that happens, a lot more people will be moving.

This downturn is going to hurt. A lot.

Not surprised, except that I’m a little amazed it has come true this early. …

I wouldn’t bet on Walmart either.

I was in Austin at 9:30 last night waiting for my son to arrive at the airport at 11:00. There aren’t a lot of places to wait, so I did something I never do- I hung around Walmart.

I think 90% of what they sell is stuff no one needs, and I doubt the margins are good on the necessities. Everyone is betting they will do better during a recession, but I’m not counting on it.