Feeling down by all the bad news dominating the headlines?  You should enjoy this piece of fantasy that L ran across. It should be good for your morning laugh.  Read about how real estate comes “roaring back” this year: FAIR OAKS, CA – The nation’s foreclosure hemorrhage has finally slowed and 2009 should see a significant decline in foreclosures as buyers return, pushing home prices up and fueling a real estate recovery, according to the 2009 Outlook from ForeclosureS.com. “Recovery is underway. Affordable is back in the housing market,” says Alexis McGee, real estate expert, educator, and president of ForeclosureS.com….
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The Twists are old Asia hands, and they remind me that, for whatever reason, Western calendar year-end is a big deal for the host cultures of the foreign central banks that have been buying America’s debt over the last few years. Their increasing appetite for single-malt has become legendary around here — maybe they’ve started celebrating Hogmanay? Anyway, I had a look at our data-set, and indeed the first couple of weeks in a year don’t usually see big moves (it’s not universal, though, early 2006 was pretty lively). This year’s early days aren’t just quiet, though, they’re just about…
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There’s a lot of things depending on stabilization in home prices, but don’t look for that to happen any time soon.  Inventory that has gone off the market recently is liable to come back again- soon.  [Thanks L!] Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — As the U.S. housing recession enters its fourth year, there’s no sign of a recovery because speculators account for most of the rise in sales. While the purchases are trimming the inventory of unsold properties, most of those bought by speculators will likely return to the market when prices rise again, hampering any recovery, said Nobel laureate economist…
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U.S. Treasury debt prices eased on Wednesday as spotty auction results confirmed fears about the market’s ability to absorb a growing need for new issuance, offsetting any safety bid from careening stocks. [1] The last few weeks of the Bush lame-duck term is obviously cloaked in a financial fog of battle, so there’s got to be something heavy going down, but what it is I don’t know. One safe assumption is that the powers-that-be are trying to steer retail investors into decisions that will benefit their rich buddies — not retail investors. What about America’s risk-free sovereign Treasury Debt? Barron’s…
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The Madoff Bailout is starting to evolve beyond comedy.[1] Clearly the pressure to bail out the victims of the Madoff Ponzi will be irresistible,[2] but since the real deal has yet to surface Doomers will have to content themselves with conjecture and rumor for now.  This unconfirmed source [3] claims to have heard a definite figure for the down-payment through the grapevine: The real story is what’s going on over at the Treasury, Federal Reserve and Congress. This trio has already spent, “loaned” or committed 8.5 trillion dollars to the economic problems plaguing our country. It appears the carnival of…
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Canada’s market for asset-backed commercial paper remains just as illiquid as it was the day it seized up nearly 17 months ago but the lawyers and financial advisors trying to rescue it have already billed noteholders for nearly $200-million. [1] First off, don’t mess with their parents … Doomers should appreciate that those events of a couple of years ago were occurring a lazy afternoon’s drive from Plattsburgh New York, in a part of the world that supplies America’s Middle Atlantic States with much of their hydro-electricity, not to mention some really good jazz. Quebecers get into some different things…
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What happened to personal responsibility in investing?  It’s been bad enough that so many bailouts are being proposed for people who rolled the housing "dice" and lost. Now Robert Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberence is proposing assistance for homebuyers going forward as well.  Among his suggestions to "get out of this mess" he advocated: [Thanks L!] He’d like to see is subsidies for financial advice, so people aren’t making mistakes going to a mortgage broker to find out how much house they can afford. I have a more affordable suggestion.  Rather than subsidizing financial advice [Does that sound like it…
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Big hat to to Tim for finding this YouTube.[1]

"We believe that in 2009 we will need to see Canadian banks stem loan and asset growth, to control their balance sheets better." [1] If I recall correctly, a Fleet Street publisher was once asked to describe the most boring imaginable newspaper story. He replied it would be coverage of The Bank Act, or anything about Canada. Well, we’re combining both this morning. Not long ago our Finance Minster was positively gloating [2] about the dullness of our financial services industry. However behind closed doors the grownups were quietly freaking, even while Canadians continued to live in a Fool’s Paradise.[3]…
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Here’s one homeowner that should have sent a thank you card to the lender that foreclosed: [Thanks "Vegas RE" and Rob for the links!] AVONDALE, Ariz. — The little blue house rests on a few pieces of wood and concrete block. The exterior walls, ravaged by dry rot, bend to the touch. At some point, someone jabbed a kitchen knife into the siding. The condemnation notice stapled to the wall says: "Unfit for human occupancy." The story of the two-bedroom, one-bath shack on West Hopi Street, is the story of this year’s financial panic, told in 576 square feet. It…
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  On Friday, Bloomberg news said that they believed that in 2009 the economy would be slightly better:  

"… it does look like this potentially has a lot of room to fall" – twist, 8/29 2008 Here’s our cenbank agencies / treasuries ratio graph from when we started following the H.4.1 numbers … … and here’s the comment twist made about it at the time. Now here’s the latest version of that chart.

Lawyers representing the victims of Bernard Madoff’s alleged $50bn fraud are calling on the US government to bail them out with billions of taxpayers’ dollars. [1] Frankly, the only surprising feature of this story is that the deal wasn’t done last Friday when the MSM was still asleep. Policymakers actually have no alternative. Neel has got to TARP the SIPC.   UPDATE: This new effort [3] exercises some of the more obvious conspiracy theories I have been expecting to pop up over the affair: By claiming that he is a fraud rather than a failure, Madoff puts the federal government…
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"For economists now to make forecasts is a pretty difficult thing," said Ray Torto, chief global economist at real-estate firm CB Richard Ellis. "All of our models are outside the territory in which they’ve been built." [1] The NY Fed was back to work on the 2nd, so we didn’t have to wait until Monday for the latest H.4.1 update. Since housing market economists have started blaming their tools, it’s not surprising that foreign central banks continue to be wary of US paper based on MBS, but perhaps the holiday season slowed down their selling activity a bit. This week’s…
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Many developments in the Phoenix area that came online after the boom have not reached buildout, and/or have had to deal with a large number of foreclosures.  It was assumed that when the homeowners took over the associations from the developers that these neighborhoods would have occupancy rates of near 100%.  Since that hasn’t happened, assessments that were meant to be divided among many are now being divided among the few, and this can be pricey:  [Thanks L!] Owners of homes in the half-built San Tan Heights development in Pinal County are staring at a special assessment of $750 per…
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