Comments on: February Phoenix Home Sales Better- What's up?

By: surak

surak — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:28:24 +0000

Jim,

I agree with you that it is early investors. But with Arizona losing population and jobs, who is going to rent all these homes and actually pay the rent each month. Investors will soon walk away. I do not think the bottom is anywhere near 4 or 5 years.

By: Russ

Russ — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 06:48:38 +0000

There are so many seriously underwater house debtors in Arizona that the source of fresh REOs appears almost limitless. I doubt that inventory will decline much further in 2009.

By: twist

twist — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 23:22:16 +0000

Brooks-

It’s about time! : )

I look forward to your posts- I’ve enjoyed your emails for the past couple of years.

By: MikeC

MikeC — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 20:02:24 +0000

Could this brief surge in sales partially represent those that fear high inflation is coming… and have cash to park but don’t know what else to convert it to before it devalues (in their opinion)?
In their minds, perhaps..
- the stock market is a big risk
- holding cash when inflation hits could be dangerous
- they don’t like gold(?)
… so they hold their noses and put their money in real estate that they believe will more-or-less float along with inflation… and is already quite discounted from its peak?

MikeC

By: brookstomlin

brookstomlin — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:42:58 +0000

Well, after ~ 2+ years of following this blog, I’ve finally logged in Twist. In Florida, both the Jacksonville (northeast) and Daytona (east-central) areas saw sales up in January. No more info than that.

By: Linenoise

Linenoise — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:42:14 +0000

The risk now seems to be unemployment.. this might turn out to be localized more than the subprime stuff, who knows? But for me, until people stop getting laid off left and right, there’s no way I’m buying – if low interest rates and tax credits pushed people into buying, losing a job and not finding a replacement will push them into foreclosing. I don’t see a bottom yet.

By: twist

twist — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:15:33 +0000

AZSaluki-

I’m not biting yet either.

M and I were talking about the best time to buy. We both decided we’d rather wait until things started to recover slightly and risk buying a little past the bottom, rather than buy while the risk of decline was still high.

I’m sure there are investors out there making money at the moment, but I’m also sure there are people out there losing big money too. I’m going to be cowering on the sidelines for awhile.

Igor is “bitter”. I am “patient”.

By: AZSALUKI

AZSALUKI — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:04:48 +0000

The new and improved tax credit does not have to be repaid and it’s an $8k refundable credit. the other attractive aspect is that for a house bought in the first half of 2009, you can actually claim the credit on your 08 tax return. I’ve already seen a client do this. He’s set to close march 10. filing his tax return now and electing to take the credit for 08. on a 160K home that gives you either 5% of your down (which more than covers FHA loans) or about 10 months of your mortgage payments. or if you were already wanting off the fence but the homes you’re looking at require some TLC, then you’ve got 8K to get your small improvements done. i’m not biting, but i can see how some will.

By: jim11111111

jim11111111 — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:58:28 +0000

Let these “early investors” do the heavy lifting for you… rehab, landscaping, etc.

By: jim11111111

jim11111111 — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:54:19 +0000

Watch Europe… We are about 4-5 years from bottom. When residential property bottoms in Europe and Asia… Buy, Buy, Buy.

50 times monthly rent should be a good target in Arizona.

By: freemonster

freemonster — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:59:16 +0000

until John Q Public buys houses there aint gonna be no recovery. Investors will only create more doom. Igor thinks that’s pretty sad