Between the cooling economy and tighter credit- things are rough enough for homebuilders. They are also facing another big problem- competing with the lenders: [Thanks L!]
In many markets, "we are no longer competing with other builders. We are competing with foreclosures," said Steve Ruffner, president of the Southern California division of KB Home.
Sales of used homes are actually rising in some regions because of foreclosures, but new-home sales fell to a four-decade low in January, down 77% from their peak in summer 2005. Altogether, home builders sold houses at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000 units in January, down from a peak of 1.4 million in July 2005.
Home builders are confronting the competition from foreclosures at a difficult time in their history. Small builders are dying by the dozens, while some large companies are staying afloat by cutting expenses and scrambling to restructure debt.
President Barack Obama’s foreclosure-prevention plan is likely to help stem the supply of bank-owned houses somewhat, and the administration’s proposed budget would extend builders a lifeline through a lucrative tax break. But the foreclosure problem won’t disappear.
"I don’t know how the builders are going to compete," said Credit Suisse analyst Daniel Oppenheim, who downgraded his ratings for Centex Corp. and D.R. Horton stock last week, partly out of concern about foreclosure competition.
I’ll bet there are a number of builders who don’t know how they are going to compete either.









twist -
Short of letting a squadron of B52s loose on the IE, what better way to reduce inventory than for the market to impose a holiday on the HBs?
John-
I couldn’t agree more.
L told me that during the S&L crisis, HBs didn’t stop building until the lenders took away their nails. This time around I worry that Big Brother will do what the lenders won’t and keep HBs supplied with plenty on nails- and the market supplied with too many houses.
Igor’s “outraged” this morning. I think we need to start buying him the decaffinated spam for breakfast- he’s getting a little testy.
Let’s see. You sell everyone a home who can afford one and then you sell everyone a home who can’t afford one and then you build tons of government subsidized rental housing and then you foreclose on the folks who couldn’t afford a home in the first place which causes some of the folks to lose their jobs who built the homes for those who couldn’t afford them in the first place and then former builders can no longer afford their homes; who does that leave to buy the colossal surplus of homes that no one can afford?
And the home builders continue to wonder what happened and why they can’t build more homes. Life is a mystery.
mtnmike,
it’s an evergrowing economy so there will always be more buyers……in the same way that it’s an evergrowing workforce so social security will always have healthy growth…..oh wait…ooops.
AZSALUKI,
Surely you aren’t trying to tell me that exponential growth in finite world is physically and mathematically impossible?
Well darn, there goes the idea for my new multi-level marketing program!
And I’m with Egor, I’m outraged.
MtnMike-
HBs aren’t wondering why they can’t sell more- they know. If only the government would subsidize the new homes so that they are cheaper than the competition, at least what sells will be a new home.
Of course, that leaves us with an ever increasing supply of existing homes that are diminishing in value, but hey, you can’t have everything.
Okay, let me disagree here. I’m a long-time reader (2+ years) but just posted my first the other day.
Builders are slowing. Look at housing starts nationwide, down drastically. Homebuilders are not building as many homes, especially in areas which aren’t profitable. At least…..smart builders are slowing. Here in the Charleston, SC area, one town had 0 housing starts in February (same town had over 1,000 starts in 2006). Actually, chart is here…..
New Summerville residential building permits:
2007: 1,100.
2008: 229
2009: 3 (January-February).
One more point I’d like to make….I know there are many neighborhoods chock-full of foreclosures. Odds are that many of the occupied homes are full of…..subprimes? Alt-a’s? What does it feel like driving through such neighborhoods? Is it somewhere you’d like to move with a family? Doubtful. I imagine (just my hunch) that many people looking for a home in the next few years will avoid such neighborhoods and buy either a new home in a neighborhood where credit scores at purchase were >680 or a 20+ year old neighborhood…
Twist, as always, though-provoking.