Say something often enough, and apparently three out of four people will believe it: [Thanks L!]
Three out of four U.S. homeowners think the worst is over in the housing market.
And half of the homeowners in Southern states – including Texas – say home prices will stabilize in their areas in the next six months, according to a new survey by Zillow.com.
Researchers for the Internet real estate marketing company quizzed almost 1,400 homeowners around the country in early April about where they thought the housing market was headed.
What does Zillow make of this optimism?
"While homeowners are now more realistic when looking backward, they are still pretty starry-eyed when looking forward, with three out of four homeowners believing that their own homes’ prices will increase or be flat over the next six months," Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow’s vice president of data and analytics, said in the report. "Unfortunately, there are few markets we expect to perform this well."
The NAR and many analysts been trumpeting increased sales in a number of areas as well as falling inventories as signs we are nearing a bottom. Why is Humphries less optimistic?
More than 30 percent of homeowners said they would be likely to put their houses up for sale at the first sign of a market rebound. That’s bad news for prices.
"With almost a third of homeowners poised to jump into the market at the first sign of stabilization, this could create a steady stream of new inventory adding to already record-high inventory levels, thus keeping downward pressure on home prices," Humphries said.
This is an astounding figure. Add in the shadow inventory out there, and you have to believe that the worst is yet to come.
the 1400 homeowners they quizzed shoulda been split up between owners, sellers, buyers, and renters. of course many homeowners think the worst is over. nobody wants to beleive their home’s value is continuing to fall. it’s the same reason many realtors have said the worst is over for the past year. if they thought otherwise then they’d be admitting to themselves that they would be struggling with their career for some time, and nobody wants to think that. those with a vested interest will always be more optimistic. i think the DOW is going to tank again….but i have no stocks. ask someone who hung on to their stocks through this whole ride and they probably think the worst is over there too.
Denial is an amazing thing – people will rationalize themselves into believing things that are completely illogical and/or obviously factually false if their sense of well being depends on it and/or the contrary would require drastic action rather than complacency.
I got this email from a “we hit bottom” real estate agent:
“ZipRealty just released the 2009 Q1 Home Hunter’s Report, which named Phoenix and five nearby cities (Scottsdale, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert and Glendale) – as some of the hottest cities in the U.S. for home buyers!
So, if you’re thinking about making an offer, or would like to check out some of the homes you’ve seen online in person, I’d encourage you to do that sooner, rather than later. And remember, I’m here to help – no question or concern is too small.”
Then points to the Ziprealty site to read the press release.
Yipee!!!! I guess we hit botton, it’s time again to buy buy buy. Twist I think it is time to shut down the site.
with “with three out of four homeowners believing that their own homes’ prices will increase or be flat over the next six months,”
That’s a pretty broad statement. And I would imagine for a lot of people it is true. Housing prices in areas which didn’t boom are likely to be flat. Notice the survey said only half of those southern states.
This survey is bad – too small a sample size, no info on questions, variance etc.
The point I believe is that 30% of homeowners would sell if there was a recovery. I think that is pretty likely. A lot of people would sell and move away from the area or move in with family- contributing to the decline. Others, like myself, would sell the house and buy another.
I think we should blame it all on the baby boomers. Don’t trust anyone over 50!
puravida – I just saw in the Las Vegas Sun that sales of existing homes are at peak levels. Inventory is still high – right around 20k in Las vegas, and prices are down 53%.
The Fed’s moratorium on foreclosures is keeping inventory down.
Its not a housing problem anymore. Its an economy problem. The houses are “good values” its just no one has the cash to buy or a job to keep it up. Those who saved for a rainy day will do ok, and be able to pick up some bargains.
OMG, that’s VERY bad news for prices.
With (ballpark #s) … 150M total homes, 15M vacant right now, and another 10M for sale … dumping another 40M homes on the for-sale market would crush prices.
You almost have to believe this whole ordeal has given plenty of people a bad taste in their mouth regarding home ownership. Some may want to sell because they just want to get rid of that mortgage. I think the 30 percent are fence sitters that have been wanting to sell and want as much as they can get.