Home buyer credits and low interest rates might tempt some brave [or foolish] souls back in the water. But the big worm in the "recovery" apple is unemployment:
The housing recovery remains weak and could take a turn for the worse if more Americans lose their jobs, analysts say.
"The market’s incredibly fragile," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys. "As long as job losses are rising, the housing market is at risk of continuing along a decline. Any recent stability would be in danger."
The unexpected drop in existing home sales for August was the latest sign of just how tentative the recent signs of recovery are.
Even people that haven’t lost jobs are likely to be concerned about the status of their own jobs or the future of the economy. Economists might have been surprised at the weakness in existing home sales, but we at Doom are not.
[Thanks L!]
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your last sentence is exactly what i was thinking!!! what was “unexpected” about a drop in sales? or maybe a better question is “who was surprised by this?” high unemployment, struggling economy, and increasingly TIGHT lending “should” indicate a continuance in the struggling housing market? i know all of us here were scoffed at and viewed as pesimists or doom and gloomers, but seriously, what is it gonna take (and how long) to convince everyone that this thing IS NOT going to turn around in a day??? or a month??? or a year???
You’re not pointing out what is causing the next leg down: the Federal Government is withdrawing from the society. Told you so. West Coast Hotel v. Parrish never repealed Mellon’s “liquidate liquidate liquidate.” Remember when I said that over two years ago?
Anyway…the scrutiny regime is moving out of power and the maintenance regime is moving into power, just as I said in my book The Eminent Domain Revolt. Remember when you exploded in response about “moral hazard?” Remember when I told you to look at all the ways YOU have been taking advantage of “moral hazard” and that you are hardly in a position to talk about “moral hazard?” that NO ONE is in a position to talk about “moral hazard?” That “moral” never existed, so how could there be a “hazard” to it? Remember when I said, stop using these idiotic petit bourgeois terms like “moral hazard” and start thinking about INDIVIDUALLY ENFORCEABLE RIGHTS and about MAINTAINING IMPORTANT FACTS?
Idiots. Anyway…if you want to actually EDUCATE yourself about what is going on, instead of BLATHERING, look at the Abbott right to education cases in New Jersey.
Previously, the education right in the New Jersey Constitution was regarded as NONLITIGABLE, that is, as conferring only MINIMUM SCRUTINY on education. Remember how I talk about the SCRUTINY REGIME in my book? Remember how you thought, “Hmmm, never heard of it, even though I live in this country and it rules this country? Hmmm, maybe I’m an IGNORANT CLOWN.” Remember??
Anyway…over THIRTY years ago the New Jersey Supreme Court found as a matter of FACT that EDUCATION is an IMPORTANT fact, that is, it is a FACT OF HUMAN EXPERIENCE WHICH, HISTORY PROVES, IS NOT AFFECTED BY ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE IT.
With that, education moved UP the scrutiny ladder (HOW ABOUT THAT?). Well, clowns, OTHER facts are moving up that ladder as well, based on the same HISTORICAL ANALYSIS.
HOUSING is one of them. Remember when I said,
BAN ALL HOUSING EVICTIONS.
We’re moving toward it very steadily, just as I predicted. And as we do, the scrutiny regime goes OUT of power and the maintenance regime comes INTO power.
And now class, what is the doctrine of the scrutiny regime:
And now class, what is the doctrine of the maintenance regime:
IDIOTS!!!
I think housing market has still to fall because America is losing on Jobs and interest rates have gone higher. There are very little chances of housing reviving. On top of it, the government efforts are not helping as well.
Recently read an article on a similar premise.
http://www.housingnewslive.com/us-housing-news-articles.php
John,
Count me in as an idiot. If all evictions are banned, play that endgame out in your mind.
Renters wouldn’t pay rent. Homeowner’s won’t make payments. Doing so would be irrational under the amoral framework.
However, I will only agree with you a smidgen that within my lifetime we could see some aspects of housing moving up the “scrutiny ladder” as well. Like minimum wage, it is more likely that the environment of “accessible credit” in the mortgage markets would be moved up. As you can now see, the only major players in the mortgage market are government entities (FHA, FNM, FRE, Federal Reserve). In this way, access to credit markets have moved up the ladder.
However, I find it unlikely that personal property rights will be rescinded just to keep some deadbeats from feeling bad about their plight. (I’m not a Harvard-trained lawyer, so what do I know?)
By the way, I predicted the exact market conditions here:
http://www.socalbubble.com/2008/02/chuck-ponzi-law-of-unintended-consequences-iii.html
But, you’ll notice that I addressed the specific issue of personal property rights. Remember the following:
Originally, it was supposed to sound something like this:
It was so important the the 5th and 14th amendment call it out specifically:
5th amendment:
14th amendment:
Just my .02. I think we’ve got our bill of rights behind us on this one. Sorry.
Chuck Ponzi
Sorry, my last entry was directed towards John Ryskamp (jryskmpr), not John the editor of housingdoom.com
Chuck -
No harm, no foul. I’m in the habit of shortening John’s handle to “JR”, by the way.
The end of this year will be interesting. Checking on Christmas retails sales is a popular pastime for the media (since its the only research they can apparently conduct on their own). I don’t see many people buying alot of stuff, especially with unemployment so high.
With the news outlets all proclaiming the recession over, how are things going to play out if sales are significantly down and several retail chains start closing stores/laying people off? The current trend seems to be reconciling facts by calling it a ‘jobless recovery’*, but that is meaningless to the 15+% of people without jobs, and the other unknown percentage that can’t afford their home, is worried about losing their job, etc etc.
The recovery seems based on the same principle as the bubble – the abundance of Greater Fools. Personally, my money is on enough Greater Fools waking up and seeing whats going on that the ‘recovery’ fails.
* A “jobless recovery” appears to be one where nothing changes in terms of unemployment or household spending, but the CEOs and wall street bankers begin receiving bonuses again.
jryskmpr,
RE:
IDIOTS!!!
Jeez JR, why don’t you just let it all hang out and say what’s on your mind…LOL!
This is just a forum: a place to learn and discuss. Is all that anger really necessary?
I don’t have anywhere near the background you have, and I believe you have a ton to offer, but the anger puts me off so much you lose me right from the start. Pity.
That’s just my own 02. Time for lunch.
catcher,
my sentiments exactly. he’s intelligent…i get it. prolly more so than i. i usually enjoy engaging with intelligent people, but by the third or fourth “i told you all so” or “remeber when i said” in EVERY one of his posts, i quit reading. just as i don’t acknowledge a child when they say “i told you so.” i come here for information…not daily rants about what someone stated two years ago. and it is a pity as i would prolly enjoy reading “most” of what he has to say (although i beleive “banning” evictions is crazy). ahhh, but i guess i’m not an intellectual.
It’s ok that JR has a rant to share, some of us are just not an every day bundle of joy. People want to think what they think is right, and some of us really can predict things to come. I’m going to just guess that we already have some type of housing or apartments that you cannot get evicted from.
Anyone here watch home yet?, I highly, highly recommend.
Takes about a whole night to download before you can watch unless you have really high speed ISP.
http://www.home-2009.com/us/index.html