By now you’ve probably heard about the situation in Dubai, where Dubai has sought a six-month extension on the debts of Dubai World, which reportedly has debts of at least $60 billion.  Markets around the world have responded negatively, as well as the in the U.S. Randall Forsyth of Barron’s sounds ominous about the situation:

THE IMPACT OF THE UPHEAVALS in Dubai extends far beyond the middle eastern emirate. Indeed, it may be the beginning of the end of the global risk trade, if it isn’t over already.

While U.S. markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, bourses abroad plunged after the government of Dubai asked to extend payments on the massive debt taken on by Dubai World, the government’s flagship corporate entity.

More importantly, the currency markets have shown unmistakable symptoms of a flight from risk. While the dollar edged higher against most currencies, the yen soared.

In addition, the ongoing rally in Treasury securities pulled yields down still further, with the key two-year note quoted at a new low of just 0.66% in Asia Friday morning as investors sought shelter from the latest credit storm.

A year ago, the U.S. and Japanese currencies also moved sharply higher as global investors unwound risk positions, which involved repaying borrowings denominated in those currencies — effectively covering a short position. That process appears to be underway again as the yen soared to the highest level since 1995 — less than 85 to the dollar in Tokyo Friday morning.

That’s all very doomish, but what Doomers want to know is what this has to do with Housing Doom? 

[T]he jump in sales of new and existing homes clearly can be traced to buyers looking to take advantage of an $8,000 tax credit originally slated to expire Nov. 30 until extended and expanded by Congress. That indicates how truly anemic the housing market is, even with the Federal Reserve’s plan to pump $1.25 trillion into mortgage-backed securities, a scheme that has lowered fixed-rate home loans into the bargain basement under 5%. Similarly, absent the cash-for-clunkers boondoggle, automobile sales remain depressed.

All of which can be traced to the inescapable truth that unemployment officially is 10.2% and 17.5% when those who can’t find full-time work or have stopped looking are counted. Meantime, despite the Fed’s massive easing of monetary policy, credit continues to tighten, as its most recent survey of lending officers showed.

But with liquidity shut off from the real economy, it has flowed into asset markets and into the so-called carry trade — borrowing at the near-zero interest rate resulting from the Fed’s federal-funds target of 0-0.25% to invest in anything else that provides a higher return. And with the dollar losing value steadily against foreign currencies, it has literally paid to borrow to invest in anything else, with the key exception of the Japanese yen.

So people will buy houses when they are bribed to buy houses, but "risk aversion" has demotivated Americans, who ordinarily like owning their own places, from making purchases. It sounds like risk is increasing- so we can assume that risk aversion will increase as well.  This cannot bode well for housing.

Was the credit crisis in 2008 averted, or was the can just kicked down the road?  If it was kicked down the road, are governments about to stub their toes trying to kick it down the road again?  Hopefully Tanta, watching us from where none of this matters, will forgive me this mixed metaphor- It’s possible this can may have come home to roost.