"The world does not have so much money to buy more U.S. Treasuries." – deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China Zhu Min4
Meanwhile there’s heavy action coming from the agencies side, too.5 As Jan-Martin often says, "I am without words …"
But the numbers, as usual, moved opposite to the rhetoric. The Fed itself significantly increased its own MBS holdings, by a big $46.918 billion. This week’s Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed’s H.4.1 table site.2 Here is Doom’s updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set.

Treasury Debt came roaring back, adding $15.645 billion

The agencies buy was modest, but at $1.303 billion a bit bigger than many recent weeks.

This week the total US obligations number surged back, adding $16.948 billion. Two more weeks like this and we’d nearly be at $3 trillion total for the end of the year. Note that if both these lines do ever peak and start heading south there’s a long way to drop.
Twist’s ratios graphs, in yet one more turn-around, slipped down a bit.


Again both lines in the Setser 52-week chart converged strongly, as we’re at the anniversary of a big agencies dump and a huge treasuries buy. It’s that downward trend at the very end of the yellow line below which is what dep. gov. Zhu was speaking to at the top of this post.

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Notes and References
[1]: "Foreign central bank U.S. debt holdings rose – Fed", by Ellen Freilich, Reuters, December 17, 2009.
[2]: "H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances", Federal Reserve Statistical Release (weekly), Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
[3]: The updated data set as a Comma Separated Value (CSV) file is here.
[4]: "China c.banker: harder for govts to buy U.S. Treasuries", by Zhou Xin and Jason Subler, Reuters, December 17, 2009. [twist sent this Freedom's Phoenix find around the Castle yesterday with a sticky-note reading ... think this is important ... I concur]
[5]: "Big Decision Looms on Fannie, Freddie", by Nick Timiraos and James R. Hagerty, Wall Street Journal / Yahoo Finance, December 16, 2009. [big hat tip to L for this dig]
Meanwhile, the government is also facing pressure to reconsider requirements that Fannie and Freddie begin shrinking their combined $1.6 trillion portfolio of mortgages next year given the fragile state of the mortgage market. Some investors worry that private investors may not be able to fill the gap as the Federal Reserve winds down its $1.25 trillion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities.









A new paper by John Taylor and Johannes Stroebel on the impact of the Fed’s MBS purchase program. From the abstract:
“We examine the quantitative impact of the Federal Reserve’s mortgage-backed
securities (MBS) purchase program. We focus on how much of the recent
decline in mortgage interest rate spreads can be attributed to these purchases. The
question is more difficult than frequently perceived because of simultaneous
changes in prepayment and default risks. When we control for these risks, we
find evidence of statistically insignificant or small effects of the program. For
specifications where the existence or announcement of the program appears to
have lowered spreads, we find no separate effect of the size of the stock of MBS
purchased by the Fed.”
http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/ST%20Paper%20-%20December%2020.pdf