By John M.
Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks, bought 51.1% of the sale, compared to an average of 57.1%. That slight decline was offset by direct bidders, which include domestic investment funds, which took a record 11.8%, compared to 6.5% on average in the last four sales. – MW4
The unseemly haste over Bernanke's reconfirmation had nothing to do with a newly awakened Bear menacing Dow 10k from the high side. Neither was it a reaction to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (the UK Telegraph's Angel of Debt) and his comments about the ongoing Greek crisis. No, it was nothing other than fear over what the gnomes at Timmy's old shop were going to uncork around 4:30 PM EST yesterday afternoon.
Indeed, the Scott Reynolds Nelson scenario of at least a decade of grinding depression after the Administration's stimulus efforts peter out is now definitely in play, because the yellow line in the below raw numbers graph has, over the last month and a half, gone Stuka …

LATER: Now twist and I are separated by a couple of time zones (and typically quite a few Degrees Centigrade) so after I went off to bed she played around a bit and concluded that this version of the above graph showing the whole dataset (which now extends back almost exactly a decade) gives in many ways a better picture of just how dramatic was the post-September '08 run-up.

From September 17, 2008, the eve of the coup, to December 30, 2009 the cenbanks supported both Administrations' bailout efforts by adding $0.738 trillion to their treasuries holdings. That era appears to be ending.

This not being an options week, it's not surprising to see the Fed's own MBS holdings drifting down $1.173 billion. The hair raising story is in the foreign central banks' Treaury Debt holdings and their slow but ominously accelerating decline of around $1 billion a week over the last 6 weeks. This week's Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed's H.4.1 table site.2 Here is Doom's updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set.

This week's treasuries sell-off was $3.806 billion, and the total drop since December 16th stands at $6.507 billion.

Agency Debt did a bit better, adding $1.776 billion (that's the Spirit
), but the agencies number has been flat as a pancake now since mid-September.
UPDATE: Igor didn't think treasuries should have all the fun today. Hat tip to the Implode-O-Gang for this5 little leak promoting Hank's book launch Monday.
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — Russia urged China to dump its Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds in 2008 in a bid to force a bailout of the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said.
This puts a whole new perspective on the red line's 180-degree turn after mid-'08, not to mention the mysterious halt in its downward momentum in January '09. Eventually a robust audit of the NY Fed may throw some light on what sort of war they have been fighting over the red line, but now that the yellow one's also in play, a sense of urgency about that might be in order.

With agencies neither rising nor falling that yellow line above is the whole show, and it's looking very toppy about now. With a top around year-end of nearly $2.19 trillion that's a lot of air under that number. And a lot of that stuff's on the short end and getting shorter by the day.
Read the rest of this entry »