What with stock markets trying to collapse, the buck has been on a tear lately with the amero gap closing yesterday at just -168 basis points. Maybe the NA union will be part of the 40th anniversary celebrations (in less than two months) of America’s abandoning real money 😉 Meanwhile the Fed’s own holdings of MBS dipped a smallish $3.350 and foreign central banks’ agencies went down over twice that amount while treasuries surged strongly. What with Chairman Paul mischievously suggesting audits for US central banking and gold holdings we may soon discover just how much of those figures derive from the offshore (e.g. San Juan, PR) parts of the NY Fed, but Igor isn’t exactly holding his breath.
This week’s Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed’s H.4.1 table site,2. Here is Doom’s updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set.
Treasury Debt holdings have now advanced $107.430 billion above their 11/17 ’10 level.
Treasury Debt blasted up $17.812 billion, which accounts for just about all the net gain over the last month.
Agencies hit another air pocket, plunging $7.074 billion to about the same level we were at in mid-October.
*Agen-FM: The dotted line is the foreign central banks’ Agency Debt holdings reduced by the level of the Fed’s own MBS holdings. Since the FRBNY itself is a lightly audited peculiar amalgam of foreign & domestic, central and private bank I think it might be useful to consider the hypothesis that for a while starting in January 2009 the Fed’s MBS holdings were being quietly deemed to be “foreign.” That is, for the first half of ’09 the dotted line seems more sensible than the red one.
The net of US obligations rebounded once again by $10.739 billion, so that this number has now gained $8.112 billion over the last four weeks.
Twist’s ratio graphs suffered yet another accelerating drop.
The Setzer numbers diverged modestly due to a similar but milder pattern on the anniversary week.
Notes and References
: “Foreign central banks’ US debt holdings rise – Fed”, Reuters, June 16, 2011.