The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released their pending home sales number, and indicates that pending sales are at an 19month high. Pending home sales measures how many homes the NAR will be closing in the near future. They did, however, admit earlier this month that they had “miscalculated” home sales for the past few years. It does make one wonder if they can count pendings any better than they can count sales. Chief economist for the NAR, Lawrence Yun, did admit that there might be one factor throwing off the accuracy of pending home sales: [Thanks L!]
The NAR credited the increase partly to pent-up demand from buyers who have been on the sidelines for months and may have previously failed to obtain a mortgage.
“Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage,” the trade group’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said in a statement.
Yun believes that this could indicate that home sales could be improving in 2012, but a 3.4% YOY drop in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released yesterday, might argue differently.
Home prices in the nation’s largest cities fell in October for the second straight month, suggesting that prices will head down further next year and dashing hopes that the sluggish housing market was headed for an upturn.
At the end of the day, I believe that it will be the overall economy that will be the deciding factor in the direction of 2012 home sales. Unemployed/underemployed/potentially unemployed people don’t buy homes. People who are secure in their employment do.
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We are hoping to have a better economy this 2012, as the oil prices will continue to rise more and more people will get unemployed and those who are employed will support their family first before they invest a home.
Can this be an indication of a brighter real estate future this year? Maybe…provided employment rate will rise too! As mentioned “Unemployed/underemployed/potentially unemployed people don’t buy homes. People who are secure in their employment do.” Hoping for the best!
It is always in the best interest of people if the economy and the real estate industry will improve this 2012. However, along with these hopes, there is also the need for proper reporting particularly in the stats or numbers of pending home sales and similar components. There is the responsibility to provide the real market conditions for proper and more appropriate decisions. We’re all keeping our fingers crossed for a better year.
More than 6 million homeowners — 12.6% of the homeowners with mortgages — were either delinquent on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of the third quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Jobs will certainly have an impact on this potential inventory.