L sent me an Arizona Republic article on Phoenix New Home Sales over the weekend. The article gave the latest numbers for home sales in the Valley. Here’s the historic data:
Average number of new houses sold per subdivision in September 2012: 2.5.
Average number of new houses sold per subdivision in September 2011: 1.8.
So what is their forecast?
Forecast for number of new houses to sell monthly in each subdivision: 4.2.
In basic statistics we are taught about a standard distribution being a bell shaped curve. In real estate forecasting it seems that the standard graph is always the hockey stick, regardless of the trend the historical data seems to have.