Posts by John M.

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Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to January 5, 2011

Greetings again from the Thirteenth District. This Thursday the amero gap closed at -31 basis points ($1 == C$0.9969; a week before it was at exactly par). I’m guessing the Ottawa Fed wants to keep the gap within a +/-300bp range like they did in 10Q4 in case something happens — e.g. a foreign central bank selloff in the US obligations we’ve been following here — and it becomes imperative to rapidly implement a North American currency. I’ll start breathing easier when either growth in the agencies / treasuries numbers picks up again or the amero gap leaves that par…
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Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to December 29, 2010

  • Published: December 31st, 2010
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Flat. Sort of like Mark Squidly’s loonie which finished yesterday at an amero-friendly $1.0000, with the buck basically hovering between C$1.00 and C$1.03 for over three months now. Talk about bedroom eyes; but I digress … So the Fed’s own holdings of MBS dropped once again by a material $16.259 billion that took the total figure south of $1 trillion for the first time since mid-February, while today’s modest moves brought the cenbanks’ treasuries number close to the figure from six weeks ago, the agencies one to that from eleven. Like at the end of ’09, somebody will have to…
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New VERSUS: I Came Upon an Engineer

  • Published: December 29th, 2010
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Marcy’s fresh satire cut really close to the bone this time (if you’ve got flash try the VERSUS home page for best sound quality):

Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to December 22, 2010

  • Published: December 24th, 2010
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The Fed’s own holdings of MBS dropped once again, but this week by a mere $0.445 and foreign central banks holdings rose, especially the Treasury Debt number. This week’s Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed’s H.4.1 table site.2 Here is Doom’s updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set. The treasuries number had been pretty flat over the last month or so, but perked right up this week. The Treasury Debt number grew by a robust $13.083 billion At $4.174 billion agencies’ growth came within about…
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Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to December 15, 2010

Just for fun let’s start with a bit of silly dialog from a two-decades old sci-fi novel … xxx… “And the government files that Demosthenes published–they were genuine.” xxx“Yes.” xxx“But Father–you joined many others in claiming that they were forgeries.” xxx“Just as the gods speak only to a chosen few, so the secrets of the rulers must be known only to those who will use the knowledge properly. Demosthenes was giving powerful secrets to people who were not fit to use them wisely, and so for the good of the people those secrets had to be withdrawn. The only way…
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Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to December 8, 2010

  • Published: December 10th, 2010
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The Fed’s own holdings of MBS were unchanged this week and foreign central banks holdings of both treasuries and agencies shrank modestly, continuing a trend of stagnation. This week’s Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed’s H.4.1 table site.2 Here is Doom’s updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set. The treasuries trend continues to sputter, much like it did around the end of last year. The Treasury Debt number turned around to a contraction of $2.872 billion. Agencies’ shrinkage nearly matched that of treasuries, reducing by…
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Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to December 1, 2010

The Fed’s own holdings of MBS shrank once more, this week by a substantial $15.150 billion, and foreign central banks just reversed last week’s counter-trend selloff, offsetting that shrinkage with just $0.273 billion to spare. This week’s Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed’s H.4.1 table site.2 Here is Doom’s updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set. Treasuries were up quite lustily this week, but that line has been sputtering a bit lately. This week’s rebound in treasuries was $8.691 billion. Agencies sagged just a bit,…
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Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to November 24, 2010

  • Published: November 28th, 2010
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The Fed’s own holdings of MBS shrank again, but by only $0.475 billion, while there were against-trend moves in both types of foreign central bank holdings of US obligations. Indeed the levels for both treasuries and agencies revisited values from between two and three weeks ago. At this point the trend only seems to be a blip / pause / breather. This week’s Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed’s H.4.1 table site.2 Here is Doom’s updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set. Treasuries retreated a…
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Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to November 17, 2010

  • Published: November 23rd, 2010
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The Fed’s own holdings of MBS shrank by $12.759 billion and cenbanks’ holdings of obligations (mostly treasuries) rose nicely, but didn’t quite offset the Fed’s own sale. This (well, last) week’s Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed’s H.4.1 table site.2 Here is Doom’s updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set. Treasuries continued a merely robust upward trend. At $9.714 bilion the Treasury Debt holdings grew at roughtly 3/4th last week’s rate. Agencies rebounded after the previous week’s selloff, but to the tune of only $0.690…
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Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to November 10, 2010

  • Published: November 17th, 2010
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The Fed’s own holdings of MBS were unchanged again and cenbanks’ holdings of treasuries rose nicely, but agencies shrank a bit, resulting in a week that was satisfactory, but not outstanding. This week’s Reuters report1 was, as usual, based on the weekly update from the NY Fed’s H.4.1 table site.2 Here is Doom’s updated CSV version3 of the agencies and treasuries foreign central bank holdings data set. The velocity of the yellow line is only about two-thirds of last week’s, but it’s still rising fast. Treasury Debt holdings grew by $13.571 billion, not as big as the last couple of…
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Crack of Doom: the Limits of Synergy

  • Published: November 8th, 2010
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What could possibly go wrong? … CNET (11/7 ’10): Reports: Amazon to buy Diapers.com Of course neither of these companies are really what we think they are anymore, but

Securitization Broke the Law

  • Published: November 6th, 2010
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Sorry about that, Professor Rawls.  Greed has now smashed about a thousand years of English Speaking Justice into little pieces scattered all over the floor.  Yesterday twist passed this link to me, and here’s the bit I’d like Doomers to think about this weekend. Much of the confusion over ownership has stemmed from the industry practice of registering mortgages on [MERS] with the name of the owner left blank.  This was done to ease secondary trading in the mortgage-backed securities that many of these mortgages were assigned to. …

Foreign Cenbank Holdings of US Obligations Weekly Update — to November 3, 2010

  • Published: November 5th, 2010
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Nick at the WSJ reports4 that besides the unlimited support for the GSEs that expires December 31, 2012, Treasury has since set aside enough monies to fund a small war for support after that date: The government took over the troubled housing-finance giants two years ago through a legal process known as conservatorship. The Treasury has promised to inject unlimited sums through 2012 and nearly $300 billion after that in order to maintain a positive net worth and to avoid triggering liquidation. I know, I know … that doesn’t constitute explicit government support for Fannie & Freddie, and therefore agencies…
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Richard Haskayne: "It's going to be as divisive as the NEP"

  • Published: November 2nd, 2010
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This country lives or dies by its resources (and my family has roots in Penobsqis NB ) … American Doomers may find this one a bit incomprehensible but, if on a scale of 1 to 10 Senator Rand Paul is a 6, this is an 8 in the Canadian context.  Prime Minister Stephen Harper has already suffered one humiliating stand-down under intense international pressure this week, and if he allows the foreign takeover of SK’s potash industry in the face of opposition from the guy who they named the business school after at the university the PM took two economics…
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It's a Steal: New CBC Radio Documentary on Florida's Foreclosure-gate

  • Published: November 2nd, 2010
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“We have a real problem with property ownership right now in this country” — Florida homeowner; about 18:00 on the tape this from today’s broadcast of Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s The Current on CBC Radio 1, with Anna Marie Tremonti Nov 02/10 – Pt 1: Foreclosures<– click here to go to CBC’s episode site (with pop-up audio file) In the wake of the U.S. mortgage crisis, banks have seized millions of homes. This year alone, nearly 300,000 homeowners in Florida received foreclosure notices. Now, there are allegations that many of those home were seized unfairly. The Current’s Howard Goldenthal traveled to Florida…
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