By John M.
Doom Transcripts: Index & Guide
Housing Doom is pleased to present a second selection from our under-construction transcript of the American Enterprise Institute’s October 22, 2009 event "The Deflating Bubble, Part VI: The Lessons of the Bubble and Crisis".1
The event site has a number of resources, including an audio and video of the proceedings. There is as yet no official transcript.
This is the presentation by UBS fixed income researcher Tom Zimmerman. Tom’s the most moderate of AEI’s Six Bears but in my opinion the scariest, because he usually brings the hardest data to the table.
Tom Zimmerman: [0:11:43] Thanks a lot, Alex, it’s great to be here again. [slide 02] What’s amazing about coming down here every 6 months is that I’m usually viewed as one of the more bearish people in my shop, and also when I speak at conferences around the country I’m usually sort of sitting on the bearish side of these discussions. But I come down here, [laughs] and I’m not … it’s a … I feel like I’m a raving bull about what’s going to happen in the world when you listen to some of these people talk. So anyway, that hasn’t changed, in the last 6 sessions, so …
We had lunch together today, and it’s exactly the same.
I see some green shoots here and there, but I think that it’s not something the other panelists see some real major problems down the road.
What I thought I’d do today is just continue some of the things I’ve talked about before in terms of the housing market, mortgage market. And then at the end talk about some of the lessons that we’ve learned from this bubble which isn’t over with yet, but we’ve learned some lessons or at least some take-aways from it.
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